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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.