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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But the current race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and longtime underperformers improving collectively. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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